Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
### Dane
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 06 2020 | 941 | 18958 | 42 | 6 | 173 | 219 |
| September 07 2020 | 977 | 19101 | 41 | 6 | 197 | 249 |
| September 08 2020 | 1000 | 19162 | 41 | 6 | 210 | 263 |
| September 09 2020 | 1037 | 19168 | 41 | 6 | 236 | 289 |
| September 10 2020 | 1060 | 19290 | 42 | 6 | 259 | 292 |
| September 11 2020 | 1098 | 19468 | 42 | 6 | 273 | 318 |
| September 12 2020 | 1171 | 19766 | 42 | 6 | 333 | 381 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 9.7 | 24.9% | 83 | 0.61% | 92 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 45 | 23.1 | 61.3% | 204 | 0.97% | 231 | 1.1% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.3 | 3.3% | 11 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 3% | 10 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.1% | 7 | 0.06% | 10 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 11 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.3 | 1.2% | 4 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 73 | 38.0 | 100% | 333 | 0.32% | 381 | 0.36% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 06 2020 | 378 | 12547 | 15 | 0 | 55 | 77 |
| September 07 2020 | 382 | 12585 | 15 | 0 | 51 | 80 |
| September 08 2020 | 385 | 12648 | 16 | 0 | 43 | 81 |
| September 09 2020 | 389 | 12673 | 17 | 0 | 44 | 77 |
| September 10 2020 | 395 | 12747 | 17 | 0 | 48 | 72 |
| September 11 2020 | 403 | 12847 | 17 | 0 | 53 | 72 |
| September 12 2020 | 409 | 12908 | 17 | 0 | 55 | 67 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 06 2020 | 388 | 7695 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 28 |
| September 07 2020 | 392 | 7695 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 32 |
| September 08 2020 | 393 | 7701 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 32 |
| September 09 2020 | 393 | 7787 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 29 |
| September 10 2020 | 394 | 7850 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 29 |
| September 11 2020 | 394 | 7922 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 25 |
| September 12 2020 | 395 | 7929 | 18 | 4 | 20 | 25 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 06 2020 | 1326 | 21490 | 37 | 2 | 217 | 288 |
| September 07 2020 | 1337 | 21787 | 38 | 2 | 204 | 290 |
| September 08 2020 | 1351 | 21821 | 38 | 2 | 195 | 291 |
| September 09 2020 | 1370 | 22056 | 39 | 2 | 193 | 293 |
| September 10 2020 | 1445 | 22189 | 39 | 2 | 263 | 336 |
| September 11 2020 | 1523 | 22407 | 39 | 2 | 321 | 390 |
| September 12 2020 | 1625 | 22558 | 39 | 2 | 417 | 469 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 0.4 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 38 | 15.7 | 30.5% | 127 | 0.77% | 136 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 54 | 21.4 | 49.6% | 207 | 0.97% | 231 | 1.09% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 1.3 | 4.1% | 17 | 0.13% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.1 | 5% | 21 | 0.15% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.9 | 4.8% | 20 | 0.14% | 29 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.3 | 3.1% | 13 | 0.09% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 3 | 0.6 | 2.2% | 9 | 0.07% | 13 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 102 | 44.7 | 100% | 417 | 0.35% | 469 | 0.4% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 06 2020 | 6118 | 169345 | 333 | 40 | 824 | 1030 |
| September 07 2020 | 6208 | 170307 | 335 | 40 | 878 | 1091 |
| September 08 2020 | 6427 | 170482 | 335 | 40 | 1040 | 1266 |
| September 09 2020 | 6489 | 171531 | 338 | 41 | 1063 | 1280 |
| September 10 2020 | 6971 | 172451 | 340 | 41 | 1542 | 1677 |
| September 11 2020 | 7254 | 172750 | 343 | 41 | 1734 | 1924 |
| September 12 2020 | 7389 | 173348 | 343 | 41 | 1825 | 2002 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.6 | 1% | 19 | 0.03% | 22 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 77 | 124.0 | 58.8% | 1073 | 1.51% | 1156 | 1.63% |
| 20-29 | 33 | 59.1 | 29.5% | 538 | 0.52% | 584 | 0.56% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.0 | 4.1% | 75 | 0.1% | 93 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 3.4 | 2.2% | 41 | 0.06% | 54 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 3.0 | 1.7% | 31 | 0.05% | 39 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.3 | 1.6% | 29 | 0.05% | 33 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 4 | 1.6 | 1% | 19 | 0.04% | 21 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 135 | 204.0 | 100% | 1825 | 0.33% | 2002 | 0.37% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 06 2020 | 81193 | 1221894 | 6070 | 1168 | 8055 | 10731 |
| September 07 2020 | 81760 | 1226793 | 6089 | 1168 | 7779 | 10906 |
| September 08 2020 | 82477 | 1230159 | 6118 | 1168 | 7677 | 10985 |
| September 09 2020 | 83334 | 1238173 | 6173 | 1183 | 7997 | 11074 |
| September 10 2020 | 84881 | 1245448 | 6222 | 1193 | 9278 | 11743 |
| September 11 2020 | 86250 | 1254034 | 6263 | 1197 | 9666 | 12269 |
| September 12 2020 | 87603 | 1264305 | 6309 | 1209 | 10474 | 12803 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 25.0 | 2.5% | 262 | 0.04% | 320 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 269 | 252.4 | 22% | 2302 | 0.3% | 2621 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 435 | 305.7 | 28.3% | 2959 | 0.39% | 3527 | 0.47% |
| 30-39 | 136 | 108.0 | 11% | 1148 | 0.15% | 1509 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 154 | 96.6 | 10.2% | 1069 | 0.15% | 1369 | 0.2% |
| 50-59 | 167 | 121.9 | 12.3% | 1286 | 0.16% | 1610 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 99 | 74.7 | 7.6% | 795 | 0.11% | 1028 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 69 | 59.0 | 6.2% | 653 | 0.1% | 819 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 1353 | 1043.3 | 100% | 10474 | 0.18% | 12803 | 0.22% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.4 | 67.6 | 110.4 | 38 | 12.6 | 23.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 7.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.7 | 82.2 | 108.5 | 44.7 | 20.3 | 20% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.6 | 162.7 | 56.2 | 204 | 51.3 | 21.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 34.6 | 46.6 | 1043.3 | 727.4 | 13.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1283"